China: Focus on activity data – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, there’s been more noise than usual in the Chinese data on account of the timing of Chinese new year, but their model suggests that activity may be settling down.

Key Quotes

“We look for near-flat import growth at +0.2% y/y and an export growth rebound of +3.0% y/y, generating a deficit of -$US800m. Along with the pickup in global PMIs of late, global trade might have finally turned a corner though the fact that both China export and import PMIs remain in contraction territory suggest any trade recovery will be slow.”