US job numbers set to bounce back - ING

James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, suggests that this month we could see a US NFP rebound to the 200k area after the March drop, but with the economy essentially at full employment, even another weaker payrolls number is unlikely to have the effect on Fed policy it once might.

Key Quotes

“This week, we expect average hourly earnings (AHE) growth to stick at 2.7%. But looking at a broader range of data, we are seeing increasing signs that these skill shortages are feeding through.”

“We saw a bit of a readjustment in March, and a further fall in unemployment in April is likely to have dragged the overall rate down to 4.0% - another post-crisis low.”