USD/CHF probable drop to 0.9814 – Commerzbank

In light of the recent price action, the pair could slip back towards the 0.9810/15 band, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF’s outside day to the downside charted last week increases the risk of a deeper corrective set back near term. We have an uptrend at .9932, but are unable to rule out a retracement to the 200 day ma at .9814 ahead of recovery. Beyond this correction lower we remain positive and look for a challenge to the 1.0039 recent high. It guards 1.0100/08 the April and May highs and the 1.0145 78.6% retracement. Longer term this is considered to be the last defense for the 1.0335 January 2017 high. Dips lower should be well supported by the short term uptrend at .9921”.

“Only failure at .9705, the mid October low, would target the .9553 June 30 low and potentially the .9421 September low”.