UK: Headline CPI likely to accelerate to 3.3% y/y in October - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for UK headline CPI to accelerate from 3.0% to a firmly outside the target band level of 3.3% y/y in October, leaving us above consensus (3.1%) and the BoE’s forecast from the Nov IR (3.2%).

Key Quotes

“While we don’t normally like to bet against the BoE on the next-month inflation print after the IR, energy prices accelerated quite substantially into the very end of October, which may not have been factored in fully in the IR, so we see a bit of upside risk.”

“For core inflation we’re still a tenth above consensus at 2.9% y/y; in contrast what we’ve seen across the rest of Europe, we’ve built in a bit more upside on the airfare side after two major airlines had issues during the month (one cancelling hundreds of flights and another going bankrupt), around the busy half-term holiday period.”