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AUD/USD Risk Reversal is flat lined, bullish break unlikely?

Thursday’s Doji candle on the AUD/USD was followed by a positive move on Friday, thus signaling heightened odds of a break above the key technical resistance of 0.7963 [Aug 17 high]. Currently, the spot is trading around 0.7940.

  • The one-month 25-delta risk reversal, which shows the difference in volatility between puts and calls [OTM 25-delta], suggests the break above 0.7963 is unlikely.
  • The chart above shows the risk reversal has remained unchanged at -0.775 for four trading days, including today.
  • A negative number indicates Puts [downside bets] are more in demand compared to Calls.
  • Only an improvement in the risk reversal, coupled with a bullish break in the spot above 0.7963 would open doors for a sustained move higher to July 27 high of 0.8066.

Europe: Week ahead – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs’ analysts provide a brief preview of plenty of risk events lined up for release from the Euroland late this week. Key Quotes: “Augus
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BOJ’s Kuroda: Policy will stay very accommodative for some time

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda delivered an interview on Bloomberg TV, recorded on Friday in Jackson Hole and published over the weekend. Key Po
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