Nonfarm payrolls: a very strong pace of job growth which should begin to ease - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac noted the forthcoming key event in nonfarm payrolls.

Key Quotes:

"US Aug employment report Sep 1, nonfarm payrolls, Last: 209k, WBC 170k Sep 1, unemployment rate, Last: 4.3%, WBC 4.4% – Nonfarm payrolls rose 209k in July following a 231k gain in June and a 145k increase in May."

"That leaves the average monthly gain for 2017 at 184k, broadly in line with that of 2016.

Given we are now 'past' full employment, this is a very strong pace of job growth which should begin to ease. On this point, each of the business survey employment indexes did pull back in July, potentially signalling a softer pace of growth in August. Yet all remain well above their long-run average levels; hence, even if growth does slow, it will still remain robust. We expect a 170k gain in August."

"From the household survey, the unemployment rate is due for a participation-induced uptick to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. But, given the strength of household survey employment growth, there is every chance it will instead hold at 4.3%."