Australian Employment: Mixed bag, but upbeat trends – TDS

In Australia, it was another headline jobs data that beat the consensus, although tempered by a correction in full-time employment, explains the research team at TDS.

Key Quotes

“Strong upward trends in full-time employment and hours worked underpin the RBA’s cautious optimism on the labour market, and in turn, are expected to spark wages growth from current record low levels.”

“Headline employment rose by +27.9k in July, after an upwardly revised +20k in June. The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% as expected, although June was lifted to 5.7%. The participation rate edged a little higher to 65.1% (mkt 65%). Annual employment growth has remained steady at 2%/yr for the past three months, consistent with the leading employment indicators, and we expect a similar pace to persist in the coming months.”

“Waiting for more wage (and CPI) reports adds to our case for RBA patience. We see the first rate hike not occurring until May 2018.”