AUD/NZD: rtwo-week rally remains in tact - Westpav

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for AUD/NZD and rates.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/NZD 1 day: The two-week old rally remains intact, targeting the 1.0900 area next, but today’s AU jobs data poses two-way risks.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A retest of the 1.0900 area seen in May is possible if iron ore’s rally since mid-June continues and global risk sentiment remains elevated. (8 Aug)

AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.04%, the 10yr around 2.82%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold for some time) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.8% to 2.3% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (8 Aug)

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open down 1bp at 2.17%, the 10yr down 2bp at 3.15%, in response to US interest rates movement overnight.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.1% to 2.6% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates."