UK: Unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.5% in June - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for the UK unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.5% in June (mkt 4.5%) after unexpectedly slipping lower in May.

Key Quotes

“Although given the way that the underlying monthly numbers (as opposed to the headline 3m MA) are shaping up, it wouldn’t be a huge stretch to see a 4.4% reading either. For wage growth, we’re likely to see headline pay hold below 2.0% y/y for the second month in a row (mkt 1.8%), holding real wage growth well into negative territory. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on the more timely jobless claims figures for July. Into June, we saw 4 straight months of rising jobless claims, and while the pace wasn’t terribly worrisome it does leave in place the steepest 4-month rise in nearly 6 years.”