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24 Apr 2015
Kiwi weakest in Asia, German IFO, Greece – Next in focus
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Aussie bounced-off 0.78 barrier and drifted lower dragged down by NZD/USD which remained the main laggard in Asia, while USD/JPY was sidelined around 119.50 levels, wiping out entire gains from the last North American session.
Key headlines in Asia
Dalian Iron ore futures go limit up
AUD/USD pushing on towards 0.78 psychological level
NZD/USD: Bullish phase ended?
Key events for the rest of the week - Westpac
Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD
There is nothing much to report in Asia amid a data-dry session with Asian equities mostly mixed despite positive closing on Wall Street overnight. While the US dollar rebounded sharply this session, correcting heavy losses from last US session after weak jobless claims and new home sales data dragged USD broadly lower.
NZD/USD continues to be offered below 0.76 barrier after latest comments from RBNZ sparked bets for a rate cut in its May meeting. Moving in tandem with the Kiwi, AUD/USD erased early gains and turned negative, failing to surpass 0.78 handle. The Aussie tested 0.78 – psychological level in early Asia after iron-ore futures soared, breaking upper circuit limit on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Iron-ore is Australia’s top export.
USD/JPY trades in a flat-lining around 119.50 levels, consolidating previous losses after bearish US data pulled the major lower from 120 levels.
Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP
In a data-light EUR calendar ahead, German IFO Business Climate data is likely to remain the major mover with all eye on Euro group meetings discussing Greece on the agenda.
German IFO report is expected to show a reading of 108.5. The previous reading came in at 107.9. This report is a leading indicator of economic health and tends to create major volatility. German IFO will be released at 8GMT.
On the contrary, we have a busy North American session, with durable goods and core durable goods orders to be the main highlight impacting major USD moves. The report is due to be published at 12.30GMT.
Later in the session, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Poloz is due to speak at a panel discussion in Washington.
Analysts at Rabobank note, "We then get the US durable goods survey for March. This has disappointed hugely in recent months (for example, the headline collapsed 1.4% MoM in February) yet is once again expected to rise 0.6% MoM on a headline basis; ex-transport orders are likewise seen up 0.3% against a -0.6% drop last month."
"With those two numbers out, the potential for swings in EUR/USD in particular should be obvious, as well as relative moves in Treasuries and Bunds; but expect most markets to get caught up in the wake if we get a big surprise in either series."
For further insights on EUR/USD, Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts explains,
"The indicators seem to suggest that we could head towards 1.0900 – and further soft US data could well assist such a move. In the meantime wait for any headlines coming from the EU meeting. Ahead of that, Asia seems to be confined to a 1.0800/50 range."
"Back to the downs side, bids will arrive at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750 (100 HMA) and at 1.0705 (200 HMA). Below 1.0700 would head to the minor double bottom at 1.0660/65 and then to minor Fibo levels at 1.0645 and 1.0600, below which would then take another look at the congestion ahead of 1.0500."
Key headlines in Asia
Dalian Iron ore futures go limit up
AUD/USD pushing on towards 0.78 psychological level
NZD/USD: Bullish phase ended?
Key events for the rest of the week - Westpac
Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD
There is nothing much to report in Asia amid a data-dry session with Asian equities mostly mixed despite positive closing on Wall Street overnight. While the US dollar rebounded sharply this session, correcting heavy losses from last US session after weak jobless claims and new home sales data dragged USD broadly lower.
NZD/USD continues to be offered below 0.76 barrier after latest comments from RBNZ sparked bets for a rate cut in its May meeting. Moving in tandem with the Kiwi, AUD/USD erased early gains and turned negative, failing to surpass 0.78 handle. The Aussie tested 0.78 – psychological level in early Asia after iron-ore futures soared, breaking upper circuit limit on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Iron-ore is Australia’s top export.
USD/JPY trades in a flat-lining around 119.50 levels, consolidating previous losses after bearish US data pulled the major lower from 120 levels.
Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP
In a data-light EUR calendar ahead, German IFO Business Climate data is likely to remain the major mover with all eye on Euro group meetings discussing Greece on the agenda.
German IFO report is expected to show a reading of 108.5. The previous reading came in at 107.9. This report is a leading indicator of economic health and tends to create major volatility. German IFO will be released at 8GMT.
On the contrary, we have a busy North American session, with durable goods and core durable goods orders to be the main highlight impacting major USD moves. The report is due to be published at 12.30GMT.
Later in the session, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Poloz is due to speak at a panel discussion in Washington.
Analysts at Rabobank note, "We then get the US durable goods survey for March. This has disappointed hugely in recent months (for example, the headline collapsed 1.4% MoM in February) yet is once again expected to rise 0.6% MoM on a headline basis; ex-transport orders are likewise seen up 0.3% against a -0.6% drop last month."
"With those two numbers out, the potential for swings in EUR/USD in particular should be obvious, as well as relative moves in Treasuries and Bunds; but expect most markets to get caught up in the wake if we get a big surprise in either series."
For further insights on EUR/USD, Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts explains,
"The indicators seem to suggest that we could head towards 1.0900 – and further soft US data could well assist such a move. In the meantime wait for any headlines coming from the EU meeting. Ahead of that, Asia seems to be confined to a 1.0800/50 range."
"Back to the downs side, bids will arrive at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750 (100 HMA) and at 1.0705 (200 HMA). Below 1.0700 would head to the minor double bottom at 1.0660/65 and then to minor Fibo levels at 1.0645 and 1.0600, below which would then take another look at the congestion ahead of 1.0500."