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FXStreet (Guatemala) - Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that the short end of the NZ curve remains depressed by market speculation the RBNZ will cut the OCR.
Key Quotes:
"Current OIS pricing has the OCR falling to 3.31% by January 2016, The RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement (March) forecasts otherwise, expecting the OCR to remain on hold until mid-2016."
"However it does at least admit there is a greater chance of a rate cut than a rate hike during that horizon. It included a discussion section describing one scenario where rate cuts may be warranted, namely inflation expectations continuing to fall."
"To that end, today’s CPI result, while approximately in line with RBNZ’s forecasts, may engender a further downward shift in inflation expectations. Inflation expectations surveys will be well worth watching this year."
"At the next RBNZ meeting, an OCR Review on 30 April, we expect a similar message to March’s – that it is likely to remain on hold for some time. However, its concerns regarding the high NZD TWI are likely to be intensified, implying the risks to the on-hold stance are in a downward direction."
