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26 May 2025
EUR/USD: Restraint bulls – OCBC
Euro (EUR) saw whippy trade on Friday, falling at first in reaction to Trump’s threat of 50% tariff on EU goods. But losses were erased amid broad USD weakness. EUR was last seen at 1.1379 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Risks somewhat skewed towards upside
"EU trade chief Sefcovic said that the 27-member bloc is committed to securing a trade deal with US based on respect not threat. The EU remains committed to securing a deal that works for both EU-US. But Trump expressed impatience with the slow progress on negotiations and is looking to raise tariff on EU on 1 Jun (which was later extended to 9 July)."
"Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose towards near overbought conditions. Risks somewhat skewed towards upside but we watch price action, which appear to be rather restraint relative to other FX. Resistance at 1.1420/30 levels. Decisive break puts next resistance at 1.1570 (recent high)."
"Failing which, the pair may revert to trading recent range. Support at 1.1280 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1150 (50 DMA)."