EUR/USD fails to move above 1.10 decisively – ING

EUR/USD has again failed to make a decisive move to 1.10+ this week, in line with our expectations, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD to move towards 1.07

"This FOMC announcement can give some breathing space to dollar-denominated assets and stabilise the greenback by keeping dovish expectations relatively capped. 1.07 is more likely than a break above 1.10 as the next big directional move for EUR/USD as US tariffs regain dominance in April. But the path to a EUR/USD decline won't be a smooth one."

"The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut rates by 25bp to 0.25% today. While consensus is overwhelmingly pointing to a cut, markets are pricing in 17bp, meaning the Swiss franc should decline on a rate decrease today. The case for a hold is not uncompelling, considering core inflation was a bit higher than expected in January and February and the trade-weighted CHF has depreciated thanks to strong European sentiment."

"However, SNB data suggests no interventions to weaken the franc after the US election, signalling policymakers' preference for a lower policy rate. We expect a cut today and a move higher in EUR/CHF. However, we are reluctant to see sustained support above the 0.97 level as European sentiment may well deteriorate in April and keep the pair capped below 0.96."